关键词: 技术预见, 预见方法, 平台化方法, 体制化方法

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the hot themes and the trend of the international technology foresight research, based on the text mining of the papers in Web of Knowledge database during 2004~2013 with Clementine. Through several kinds of data processing, such as frequency analysis, cooccurrence analysis, chain index analysis, and themes group analysis, accompanying with interpretating of highly cited literature, this paper pointed out: ①The study on the method of technology foresight was the hottest theme, which would get more and more important; ②Many articles began to rethink the traditional methods of technology foresight, many highly cited papers discussed the new methods of technology foresight; ③It is necessary to make a breakthrough progress on the study of methods, in order to fulfill the huge need for the enterprises to do foresight; ④Institutionalized approach and Platform approach, which can be run independently, would become the main research directions. Institutionalized approach and Platform approach, which can be run independently, would become the main research directions.

Key words: Technology foresight, Method of technology foresight, Platform approach, Institutionalized approach