关键词: 技术预测, 情景分析, 技术竞争情报

Abstract:

The paper introduces the features of scenario analysis and the dynamic of technology development，assumes that it is feasible for scenario analysis to apply to technological forecasting.Analyzes the process of the application，including steps in the following： picking  up expert candidates，defining key influencing factors of technology development，scenario description of technology development，sensitivity analysis of technology development，path analysis of technology development and the support of the results to enterprise technological decisionmaking.

Key words: Technological forecasting, Scenario analysis, Competitive technical intelligence